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Luck

SleipnirSleipnir
in Strategy
Is it just me, or is anyone else suffering from a lack of luck since the new upgrade? I am getting annihilated in HA and HC, my opponent will always get draw which give great combination possibilities while I get the most awful draws, sometimes not even a barrier is possible. Also, it seems to be taking longer to charge up the sun spear although maybe that’s because I’m struggling to combine creatures!

Comments

  • HägarHägar
    I noticed that the draw goes through cycles. I get about 4-5 in a row and then my opponent gets 4-5 in a row. Haven't counted exactly...
  • SleipnirSleipnir
    I fell from GM3 to GM2 last week and it looks like I will be in GM1 next week... I have mostly level 6 creatures, plenty of idols and yet I’m being trounced by teams of level 5 creatures. I even tried auto play for a few games but nope, I lost them too. Have I angered the gods???
  • BedazzleBedazzle
    The gods have been very fickle lately. But true to form, the Golden Fleece is hard to find and keep my fellow Argonaut (Solgardian). I myself have seen it. And what a spectacular sight, but sigh sigh.  It was yanked beyond my grasp right as I just wanted to feel it. Lol 
  • ragnarragnar
    I have noticed this also, the battles seem to be stacked on the favour of the of the opponent: I can go against teams that are dramatically less powerful than my top team, but get smashed to pieces with the relentless luck  that they have!
  • SleipnirSleipnir
    @ragnar my luck changed after a few days. Hopefully yours will too. 
  • LiquidMinstralLiquidMinstral
    Luck definitely seems to run in waves throughout the game
  • XymoXXymoX
    It is important to try to put more objectivily founded indicators to luck or unluck : a good candidate may be the points left at the end of a fight in case of a defeat against an equal or near equal  opponent. The more important this number, the more the odds are skewed. Here, we suppose that everybody try to win.
  • XymoXXymoX
    I’m not quite sure that their are waves of luck/unluck : i think that the odds depends on the number of players trying to reach a given rank or a given range of rank and of the number of places available for that rank / range of rank 

    if you you have a lot of players trying to reach at the same time a given rank, you will probably have less favorable odds !
  • LiquidMinstralLiquidMinstral
    edited August 2019
    I'm thinking there are indeed waves of "luck" in the game. I am currently gathering data to key in on the HA algorithm by autoplaying every match and gathering the stats, choosing the top opponent every time. First season I started tracking I won 55 out of 91 matches for a 60% win rate, the next season I won 55 of 99 for a 55.5% win rate, and now I am sitting at 26 of 39, for 66.6% win rate. season 2 started off really rough, and got better by the end to bring my win rate up from sub 50%. I imagine this season, which started really hot, will probably start tapering off at some point and drop me back down closer to (what I think the algorithm is set at) around 60%. This is in GM III with a team power of 20048. I think the GM III algorithm has an average win rate of 60% with a fluctuation of around 5% (when fighting against similar strength opponents). So on average you will win 60% of the time, but in any given season you can fluctuate as low or has high as 5%. That 10% swing from 55% to 65% is where that "luck" factor is and the waves would be like the swing I am currently on, going from 55% wins to 66% wins, from one season to the next. It feels rather different too, from a psychological perspective. Last season was rough, I felt beat up. This season I'm feeling fairly invincible at rank 4 while playing on autoplay. The number of players doesn't factor into it, it's simply about your own outcomes on the RNG. The number of players do factor into it when it comes to rank, as a players can spend enough money and play enough rounds to overcome the dips in the lows to move up in rank, as well as purchasing buffs.
  • XymoXXymoX
    I am conducting the same type of observation / experiment with buffs (vs. No buff). It seems to be totally useless and sometimes really detrimental  
  • XymoXXymoX
    The only way to improve its ranking is to increase the number of fights 
  • SleipnirSleipnir
    Interesting, liquid minstral. I don’t track anything like as close as you but my gut feeling is that my wins are sub 50%. But I don’t have a fully maxed out team so I’m chancing my arm a bit
  • XymoXXymoX
    For the moment, in LL, I am in a 60/40 ratio (60 for  loss) against weaker opponents and with a difference of 100 to 200 hp at the end of the fight. I am not quite  sure it can be considered as a fair ratio. 
  • SleipnirSleipnir
    I must record my stats next season. I keep waiting for my luck to change this season. Still waiting. Like you and those mythical gems Xymox 
  • XymoXXymoX
    edited September 2019
    I decided to use an Apple of Idunn. It doesn’t improve my ratio win/ loss but it reduce my loss of points and of ranking 
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